England: Premier LeagueFriday 28 Aug, 19:00 UTC

Crystal Palace vManchester City

Most likely scoreline
1–1
10% of the time · 3.14 goals expected
Crystal Palace 47%Draw 28%Manchester City 25%
How we get there
Crystal PalacestepManchester City
1.85Base xG · rolling 26-match1.30
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.85Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.30

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Crystal Palace average 4.5 corners per game at home this season (27 competitive matches). Manchester City average 5.6 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
4
2
1
1
8
10
7
3
1
2
7
10
6
3
1
3
5
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026

Crystal PalaceHome
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Eddie Nketiah — Thigh injury (physioroom.com EPL injury table, fetched 30 Jul 2026). Appears to be a NEW issue picked up between 18 and 30 July - he scored a brace vs Swindon on 18 July…
    Expected return: Unverified - no return date published
  • Cheick Doucoure — Listed only as 'other' injury type on physioroom.com. History of a serious knee problem requiring surgery in Jan 2025; whether this is a recurrence is unverified
    Expected return: Unverified - no return date published
Latest updates
  • 13 Aug · Departure
    Brennan Johnson leaves Palace for Everton in swap deal after 26 goalless games
    Johnson, 25, completed a move to Everton on 11 August as the other half of the McNeil swap, signing a four-year deal.
  • 13 Aug · Signing
    Dwight McNeil joins Palace on four-year deal in straight swap with Everton
    McNeil, 26, completed a move to Selhurst Park on 11 August in a rare straight swap that took Brennan Johnson to Everton, signing a four-year contract. Fees were undisclosed.
Man CityAway
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Rodri — Back surgery on a problem picked up around the 2026 World Cup; missing the entire Asia pre-season tour
    Expected return: Maresca expects him back in training at the City Football Academy in the week before the Community Shield v…
  • Jack Grealish — Stress fracture of the left foot — surgery in January/February 2026, which cut short his Everton loan
    Expected return: Not named in the Asia tour squad; still working back to full fitness. No date reported
Latest updates
  • 16 Aug · Departure
    Max Alleyne joins Burnley on season-long loan
    City officially confirmed on Friday evening that the 21-year-old defender has joined newly-promoted Burnley for the 2026/27 season.
  • 16 Aug · Manager
    Maresca says Haaland is fit after minor heel problem
    Asked about Haaland missing part of training, Maresca said: "He just had some small things behind his heels but he's okay." Haaland is available for the Community Shield, though previews…

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

Crystal PalaceHomeShape not settled
Goalkeeper
GKDean Henderson (captain since January 2026, undisputed No.1)
Defence
CBChris RichardsCBChadi RiadCBOscar Mingueza (if back three)RWB/RBDaniel MunozLWB/LBTyrick Mitchell
Midfield
CMAdam Wharton (transfer risk)CMJefferson Lerma or Will HughesAMYeremy PinoAMDaichi Kamada or Ismaila Sarr (transfer risk)
Attack
STJean-Philippe Mateta or Jorgen Strand Larsen
Selection doubts
  • VERY LOW CONFIDENCE - no actual starting-XI or formation data could be obtained for any of the four preseason matches.
  • Centre-forward: Jean-Philippe Mateta vs Jorgen Strand Larsen (club-record signing worth up to £48m, joined Feb 2026, scored a brace vs Swindon on 18 July).
Man CityAway4-2-3-1
Goalkeeper
GKGianluigi Donnarumma
Defence
RBRico Lewis (inverting) — or Matheus NunesCBRuben DiasCBJosko GvardiolLBRayan Ait-Nouri — or Nico O'Reilly
Midfield
CMRodri (fitness-dependent)CMElliot AndersonAMRayan Cherki
Attack
RWAntoine SemenyoLWJeremy DokuSTErling Haaland
Selection doubts
  • Pivot partner for Rodri: Elliot Anderson (£116m) vs Tijjani Reijnders vs Mateo Kovacic — Sofascore lays out three distinct Maresca setups using different combinations
  • No.10: Rayan Cherki vs Phil Foden vs Omar Marmoush

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

HaalandHaalandMCI · FWD · £15.5m5.3 pts
AndersonAndersonMCI · MID · £6.5m3.7 pts
CherkiCherkiMCI · MID · £7.5m3.6 pts
All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Crystal Palace fixtures & form →Manchester City fixtures & form →

Crystal Palace vs Manchester City — Head-to-Head

In 2 recorded meetings since 21 March 2026, Crystal Palace have won 0, Manchester City have won 1, with 1 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
13 May 2026Manchester City 3–0 Crystal PalaceEngland: Premier League
21 March 2026Manchester City 0–0 Crystal PalaceENGLAND: Premier League

The model's verdict for this fixture: Crystal Palace 47% · draw 28% · Manchester City 25%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Crystal Palace predictions & form →Manchester City predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.