Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 16 Aug, 01:30 UTC

Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
57.1% home26.2% draw16.7% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Colorado RapidsstepSporting Kansas City
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Colorado Rapids average 6.1 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches). Sporting Kansas City average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
Sporting Kansas City or draw
24%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Colorado Rapids vs Sporting Kansas City — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 22 March 2026, Colorado Rapids have won 1, Sporting Kansas City have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
22 March 2026Sporting Kansas City 14 Colorado RapidsUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Colorado Rapids 57% · draw 26% · Sporting Kansas City 17%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.