> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Saturday 27 Jun, 23:30 UTC
Colombia vs Portugal
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals lands at 71% because Colombia's Luis Díaz and Portugal's Cristiano Ronaldo—each commanding 22% of their team's attacking threat—face a combined xG of 2.69 in a fixture with no clear defensive edge.
Win probability
32.9% home31.9% draw35.2% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
ColombiastepPortugal
1.32Base xG · rolling 26-match1.37
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.32Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.37
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
⚡ Full-time recap available
Colombia 0–0 Portugal
See how the model called it · pick-by-pick verdict · xG vs actual →
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+