Bawler / Colombia vs Congo DR / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Colombia 1–0 Congo DRMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 24 June 2026

Colombia
1–0
Colombia win
Congo DR
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Colombia at 37%, draw at 32%, Congo DR at 31%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Colombia.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Colombia win
37%
Actual ✓
Draw
32%
DR win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.38 – 1.24
Total 2.63
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.6 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 1.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals at 76% is the play—both sides project 2.62 combined xG with Colombia's Luis Díaz and Jhon Durán accounting for over a third of their attacking threat."

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