Match prediction·World: World Cup·Thursday 18 Jun, 22:00 UTC

Canada vs Qatar

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% because Canada's 1.49 xG and Qatar's 1.15 xG combine for a low-scoring script where both teams' creator and striker talent—Davies and David for the hosts, Afif and Ali for the visitors—will likely each find the net once.

📊 Win probability
41.8% home31.7% draw26.5% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
CanadastepQatar
1.36Base xG · rolling 26-match1.21
× 1.10Home advantage · Host nation× 0.95
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.15

Canada average 15.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches). Qatar average 3.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
11
12
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
74%
Qatar or draw
51%
Under 2.5 goals
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Jonathan David
Canada · Juventus
46%
To score
Almoez Ali
Qatar · Al-Duhail
42%
To assist
Akram Afif
Qatar · Al-Sadd
38%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Canada vs Qatar — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Canada and Qatar — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Canada 42% · draw 32% · Qatar 27%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Canada 60 Qatar
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.