Match prediction·Portugal: Primeira Liga·Sunday 16 Aug, 14:30 UTC

C.D. Nacional vs Estoril

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
37.5% home29.8% draw32.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
C.D. NacionalstepEstoril
1.55Base xG · rolling 26-match1.07
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.55Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.07

C.D. Nacional average 4.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Estoril average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (17 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

C.D. Nacional fixtures & form →Estoril fixtures & form →

C.D. Nacional vs Estoril — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between C.D. Nacional and Estoril — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: C.D. Nacional 37% · draw 30% · Estoril 33%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

C.D. Nacional predictions & form →Estoril predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.