What we expect
In plain English
Bulgaria are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Estonia. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
Bulgaria or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Bulgaria vs Estonia?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bulgaria are favoured (53% win probability vs 25% for Estonia, 22% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Bulgaria vs Estonia?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bulgaria 2-1 Estonia (9.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.59.
How does Bawler predict Bulgaria vs Estonia?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bulgaria 53%, the draw 22% and Estonia 25%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
BTTS: Yes (68% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.14 and away expected goals 1.45.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Bulgaria vs Estonia?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.59. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).