BAWLER
Bawler / Bulgaria vs Luxembourg / Recap
FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Bulgaria 1–2 LuxembourgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 26 September 2026

Bulgaria
1–2
Luxembourg win
Luxembourg
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Bulgaria at 40%, draw at 26%, Luxembourg at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Bulgaria to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Bulgaria win
40%
Draw
26%
Luxembourg win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.53 – 1.41
Total 2.94
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 81%, driven by Bulgaria's 1.62 xG and Luxembourg's 1.43 xG creating a combined 3.05 expected-goal total that projects a multi-goal result."

> More from Bawler