Before kickoff our call was Luxembourg or draw at 73%. Bawler had Luxembourg at 45%, the draw at 27% and Bulgaria at 27%. The match finished 0–2.
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.