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Bawler / Bulgaria vs Estonia / Recap
FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Bulgaria 0–0 EstoniaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Bulgaria
0–0
Draw
Estonia
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Bulgaria at 43%, draw at 24%, Estonia at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Bulgaria to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Bulgaria win
43%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Estonia win
33%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.82 – 1.57
Total 3.40
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.4 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 86%, backed by Bulgaria's 0.43 expected-goal advantage and a combined xG total of 3.49 pointing to an attacking contest."

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