FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Estonia 0–0 IcelandMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Iceland to win at 61%. Bawler had Estonia at 15%, the draw at 23% and Iceland at 61%. The match finished 0–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Estonia win
15%
Draw
23%
Result
Iceland win
61%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.8 – 1.9
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 2.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Iceland to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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