> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Monday 29 Jun, 17:00 UTC
Brazil vs Japan
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Win probability
46.1% home29.5% draw24.4% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
BrazilstepJapan
1.70Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.19
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.70Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses1.19
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
9
11
7
3
1
2
8
10
6
2
1
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 2.5 Goals + 1X + Over 8.5 Corners + Ayase Ueda 1+ Shot on Target
Model 24.2% Β· @ 4.13x
Take this pick β> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Brazil 2β1 Japan
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+