What we expect
In plain English
Bolton Wanderers are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have lost four of their last six, and Stoke City have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Bolton Wanderers or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
Bawler's model rates this match: Bolton Wanderers are favoured (43% win probability vs 30% for Stoke City, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bolton Wanderers 1-1 Stoke City (12.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.75.
How does Bawler predict Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bolton Wanderers 43%, the draw 27% and Stoke City 30%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.52 and away expected goals 1.23.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.75. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).