Stoke City beat Bolton Wanderers 2–1. Bolton Wanderers had 30 shots (5 on target) to Stoke City's 9 (4), with 68% of the ball against 32%. On expected goals it was 3.0 to 0.7, so Bolton Wanderers created the better chances and still lost the game.
The grey number is their average over the last six.
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
Stoke City beat Bolton Wanderers 2–1. Bolton Wanderers had 30 shots (5 on target) to Stoke City's 9 (4), with 68% of the ball against 32%. On expected goals it was 3.0 to 0.7, so Bolton Wanderers created the better chances and still lost the game.
Bolton Wanderers 1–2 Stoke City, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bolton Wanderers 43%, the draw 27% and Stoke City 30%.
Full-time: Possession 68%–32%, Expected goals (xG) 3.0–0.7, Shots 30–9, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 23–6, Big chances 6–3, Corners 11–4, Saves 2–4, Fouls 8–9, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 1–1, Red cards 0–1.
Yes — both Bolton Wanderers and Stoke City scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.