FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–3 Bolton WanderersMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Wolverhampton Wanderers to win at 62%. Bawler had Wolverhampton Wanderers at 62%, the draw at 22% and Bolton Wanderers at 16%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
62%
Draw
22%
Bolton Wanderers win
16%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.9
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win
Pre-match: 62%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 53%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.