FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Southampton 0–0 Bolton WanderersMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Southampton or draw at 79%. Bawler had Southampton at 57%, the draw at 23% and Bolton Wanderers at 21%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Southampton win
57%
Draw
23%
Result
Bolton Wanderers win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.2
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 3.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.