AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles prediction — Eredivisie · Sat 29 Aug · 17:45 UK

Eredivisie · Sat 29 Aug · 17:45 UK
AZ Alkmaar 66Draw 19Go Ahead Eagles 15
The call
66%
AZ Alkmaar to win
3.4
Goals expected
Full time
Final 5–2

How it finished

AZ Alkmaar beat Go Ahead Eagles 5–2. Bawler's model had AZ Alkmaar in front at 66% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals; the match produced 7. AZ Alkmaar had 20 shots (8 on target) to Go Ahead Eagles' 10 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 1.8.

AZ AlkmaarFull-time statsGo Ahead…
52%Possession48%
2.4Expected goals (xG)1.8
20Shots10
8Shots on target4
13Shots inside box7
3Big chances3
8Corners4
2Saves3
9Fouls6
1Offsides1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultAZ Alkmaar 66%AZ Alkmaar (66% called)
Total goals3.47
Both teams to score59%Yes
Model callHome Win 66%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
AZ Alkmaar to score90%
Over 1.5 goals85%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Go Ahead Eagles to score65%

First half — what we expected

AZ AlkmaarBefore half-timeGo Ahead Eagles
72%Chance to score27%
12.0Expected shots3.7
4.1Expected shots on target1.3
4.0Expected corners1.8
64%Chance of 11+ shots0%
43%Chance of 13+ shots0%
65%Chance of 3+ shots on target14%
39%Chance of 5+ shots on target1%
74%Chance of 3+ corners28%
37%Chance of 5+ corners5%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 79%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+1.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5AZA 1 · D 4 · GOG 0
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

Apr 2026Go Ahead Eagles 0–0 AZ Alkmaar
Dec 2025AZ Alkmaar 2–2 Go Ahead Eagles
May 2025Go Ahead Eagles 0–3 AZ Alkmaar
Apr 2025AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Go Ahead Eagles
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?

AZ Alkmaar beat Go Ahead Eagles 5–2. Bawler's model had AZ Alkmaar in front at 66% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.4 goals; the match produced 7. AZ Alkmaar had 20 shots (8 on target) to Go Ahead Eagles' 10 (4), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 2.4 to 1.8.

What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?

AZ Alkmaar 5–2 Go Ahead Eagles, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with AZ Alkmaar 66%, the draw 19% and Go Ahead Eagles 15%.

What were the stats in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?

Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 2.4–1.8, Shots 20–10, Shots on target 8–4, Shots inside box 13–7, Big chances 3–3, Corners 8–4, Saves 2–3, Fouls 9–6, Offsides 1–1.

Did both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles?

Yes — both AZ Alkmaar and Go Ahead Eagles scored, finishing 5–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Go Ahead Eagles right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said AZ Alkmaar 66%, it finished AZ Alkmaar (66% called); Total goals — we said 3.4, it finished 7; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Home Win 66%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

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