FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Go Ahead Eagles 3–1 ADO Den HaagMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Go Ahead Eagles or draw at 80%. Bawler had Go Ahead Eagles at 58%, the draw at 22% and ADO Den Haag at 20%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Go Ahead Eagles win
58%
Result
Draw
22%
ADO Den Haag win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.1 – 1.2
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.