FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Go Ahead Eagles 3–1 ADO Den HaagMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Go Ahead Eagles at 58%, draw at 22%, ADO Den Haag at 20%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Go Ahead Eagles.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Eagles win
58%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Haag win
20%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.14 – 1.19
Total 3.33
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost