Match prediction·USA: MLS·Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Atlanta United FC vs Red Bull New York

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
45.1% home26.6% draw28.4% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Atlanta United FCstepRed Bull New York
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Atlanta Utd average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (21 competitive matches). New York Red Bulls average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (20 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
Red Bull New York to win
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Atlanta United FC fixtures & form →Red Bull New York fixtures & form →

Atlanta Utd vs New York Red Bulls — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Atlanta Utd and New York Red Bulls — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Atlanta Utd 45% · draw 27% · New York Red Bulls 28%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Atlanta Utd predictions & form →New York Red Bulls predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.