Match prediction·World: World Cup·Wednesday 17 Jun, 01:00 UTC

Argentina vs Algeria

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 71% probability because Argentina's 1.46 xG and Algeria's 1.04 create a combined total that tilts decisively toward a multi-goal match.

📊 Win probability
43.4% home32.4% draw24.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
ArgentinastepAlgeria
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match1.04
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.46Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.04

Argentina average 4.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Algeria average 6.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
4
2
1
12
12
6
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
71%
Algeria or draw
49%
Algeria to win
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Lautaro Martínez
Argentina · Inter Milan
52%
To score
Lionel Messi
Argentina · Inter Miami
50%
To score
Julián Álvarez
Argentina · Atletico Madrid
45%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Argentina vs Algeria — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Argentina and Algeria — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Argentina 43% · draw 32% · Algeria 24%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Argentina 30 Algeria
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.