Al-Faisaly vs Al Ittihad prediction — Saudi Pro League · Fri 11 Sept · 16:45 UK

Saudi Pro League · Fri 11 Sept · 16:45 UK
Al-Faisaly 31Draw 25Al Ittihad 44
The call
69%
Al Ittihad or draw
3.2
Goals expected
12d 11hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Al Ittihad to score82%
Over 1.5 goals82%
Al-Faisaly to score76%
Over 2.5 goals61%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5AFA 1 · D 1 · AIT 3
Opponent strength indexTop quartile

Head to head

Feb 2024Al-Faisaly 0–4 Al Ittihad
Jan 2022Al Ittihad 1–0 Al-Faisaly
Aug 2021Al-Faisaly 1–2 Al Ittihad
Feb 2021Al Ittihad 1–3 Al-Faisaly
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Common questions

Who will win Al-Faisaly vs Al Ittihad?

Bawler's model rates this match: Al Ittihad are favoured (44% win probability vs 31% for Al-Faisaly, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Al-Faisaly vs Al Ittihad?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al-Faisaly 1-1 Al Ittihad (11.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.16.

How does Bawler predict Al-Faisaly vs Al Ittihad?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Al-Faisaly 31%, the draw 25% and Al Ittihad 44%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Al-Faisaly vs Al Ittihad?

BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.43 and away expected goals 1.74.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Al-Faisaly vs Al Ittihad?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.16. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

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All fixtures & results →Al-Faisaly form →Al Ittihad form →