FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 10 October 2026

Al Hilal 3–2 Al IttihadMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026

Al Hilal
3–2
Al Hilal win
Al Ittihad

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Hilal to win at 75%. Bawler had Al Hilal at 75%, the draw at 15% and Al Ittihad at 10%. The match finished 3–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Hilal win
75%
Result
Draw
15%
Al Ittihad win
10%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.8 – 0.9
Total 3.7
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 1.2
From the match itself

The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Hilal to win
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

More from Bawler