Al Faisaly 1–3 Al IttihadMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 11 September 2026

1–3

Al Ittihad win

Al Ittihad

> 🧠 Model verdict

✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Al Faisaly at 32%, draw at 24%, Al Ittihad at 44%. The match ended 1-3 — confirming the model's lean toward Al Ittihad.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Faisaly win

32%

Draw

24%

Ittihad win

44%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.56 – 1.85

Total 3.41

Actual

1 – 3

Total 4 (+0.6 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Over 1.5 Goals

Pre-match: 85%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Draw

Pre-match: 24%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 87% confidence as both sides combine for 3.56 expected goals, with Al Ittihad's slight 1.87 xG edge suggesting attacking intent despite the narrow 7-point win-probability gap."

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