FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Saturday, 05 September 2026

Al-Faisaly 0–0 Al HazemMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026

> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Al-Faisaly at 45%, draw at 24%, Al Hazem at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Al-Faisaly to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Al-Faisaly win
45%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Hazem win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.87 – 1.53
Total 3.40
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.4 vs xG)

Match underperformed xG by 3.4 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 69%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 85% confidence because Al-Faisaly's 1.87 xG combined with Al Hazem's 1.53 xG projects a high-volume attacking contest."

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