What we expect · full match
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s last six matches, home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast.
What we expect
In plain English
Al Ittihad should get at least a draw here. They have won six of their last six, the model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Al Shabab, and they have won four of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Al Ittihad or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Al Ittihad · last 6
Al Shabab · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 84%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's last six first halves.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Al Ittihad vs Al Shabab?
Bawler's model rates this match: Al Ittihad are favoured (53% win probability vs 24% for Al Shabab, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Al Ittihad vs Al Shabab?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Al Ittihad 1-1 Al Shabab (9.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.4.
How does Bawler predict Al Ittihad vs Al Shabab?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Ittihad 53%, the draw 22% and Al Shabab 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Al Ittihad vs Al Shabab?
BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.07 and away expected goals 1.35.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Ittihad vs Al Shabab?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.4. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).