What we expect
In plain English
Abha are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. They have lost four of their last six. The model sees around two goals in it.
What would change the call
Abha or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Abha vs Al Faisaly?
Bawler's model rates this match: Abha are favoured (40% win probability vs 31% for Al Faisaly, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Abha vs Al Faisaly?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Abha 1-1 Al Faisaly (13.8% probability). Expected total goals: 2.40.
How does Bawler predict Abha vs Al Faisaly?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Abha 40%, the draw 29% and Al Faisaly 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Faisaly?
BTTS: No (51% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.30 and away expected goals 1.10.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Abha vs Al Faisaly?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.40. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).