What we expected from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
What we said the chances were
First half — what we expected
First half — what we expected
How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.
League position
Around this fixture
Saudi Pro League table →Common questions
Who will win Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Bawler's model rates this match: Al Ahli are favoured (39% win probability vs 35% for Al Nassr, 26% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Bawler's predicted score is Al Ahli 2-1 Al Nassr: the most likely score if Al Ahli win, which is the likeliest result (39%). Our model puts that exact score at 8.5%. Expected total goals: 3.0.
How does Bawler predict Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Al Ahli 39%, the draw 26% and Al Nassr 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 59% chance. That is based on Al Ahli expecting 1.52 goals and Al Nassr 1.44.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Bawler's model expects 3.0 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 57%.