FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 23 October 2026

Al Faisaly 1–3 Al NassrMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 23 October 2026

Al Faisaly
1–3
Al Nassr win
Al Nassr

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Nassr to win at 71%. Bawler had Al Faisaly at 11%, the draw at 18% and Al Nassr at 71%. The match finished 1–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Faisaly win
11%
Draw
18%
Al Nassr win
71%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.9 – 2.4
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Nassr to win
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Nassr's away-win prediction (71% forecast) rests on a decisive 1.53 xG advantage, suggesting the visitors will dominate shot quality and creation at Al Faisaly."

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