FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Friday, 09 October 2026

Al Nassr 3–0 Al DiriyahMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 09 October 2026

Al Nassr
3–0
Al Nassr win
Al Diriyah

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Nassr or draw at 82%. Bawler had Al Nassr at 58%, the draw at 24% and Al Diriyah at 18%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Nassr win
58%
Result
Draw
24%
Al Diriyah win
18%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.8 – 0.9
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Nassr or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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