FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Thursday, 22 October 2026

Al Ahli 4–1 Al KhaleejMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026

Al Ahli
4–1
Al Ahli win
Al Khaleej

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Ahli to win at 69%. Bawler had Al Ahli at 69%, the draw at 19% and Al Khaleej at 13%. The match finished 4–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Ahli win
69%
Result
Draw
19%
Al Khaleej win
13%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
2.3 – 0.9
Total 3.2
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.9 – 0.5
From the match itself

The match produced 1.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Ahli to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 54%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Ahli's home win stands as the high-confidence call, backed by a dominant 1.42 expected-goals advantage and 69% win probability over Al Khaleej."

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