FT · Saudi Arabia: Saudi Pro League · Monday, 19 October 2026

Al Fayha 2–3 Al AhliMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 19 October 2026

Al Fayha
2–3
Al Ahli win
Al Ahli

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Al Ahli to win at 68%. Bawler had Al Fayha at 12%, the draw at 20% and Al Ahli at 68%. The match finished 2–3.

Pre-match probability vs result

Al Fayha win
12%
Draw
20%
Al Ahli win
68%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.8 – 2.1
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 3.5
From the match itself

The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Al Ahli to win
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Medium confidence
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Al Ahli's away win is the model's high-confidence call at 68%, backed by a decisive 1.36 xG advantage that reflects their superior chance creation against a Fayha side managing just 0.78 expected goals."

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