AC Milan vs Venezia prediction — Serie A · Fri 28 Aug · 19:45 UK

Serie A · Fri 28 Aug · 19:45 UK
AC Milan 54Draw 25Venezia 21
The call
79%
AC Milan or draw
2.8
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–0

How it finished

AC Milan beat Venezia 2–0. Bawler's model had AC Milan in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. AC Milan had 16 shots (5 on target) to Venezia's 9 (2), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.8.

AC MilanFull-time statsVenezia
58%Possession42%
2.1Expected goals (xG)0.8
16Shots9
5Shots on target2
11Shots inside box7
7Big chances0
2Corners3
2Saves4
8Fouls11
1Offsides4
1Yellow cards3
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultAC Milan 54%AC Milan (54% called)
Total goals2.82
Both teams to score52%No
Model call1X 79%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
AC Milan to score83%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Under 3.5 goals70%
Venezia to score63%

First half — what we expected

AC MilanBefore half-timeVenezia
51%Chance to score36%
6.2Expected shots2.4
1.9Expected shots on target2.9
2.1Expected corners0.1
72%Chance of 5+ shots12%
43%Chance of 7+ shots2%
55%Chance of 2+ shots on target65%
12%Chance of 4+ shots on target32%
85%Chance of 1+ corners10%
34%Chance of 3+ corners0%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 68%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.8 / match
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Apr 2025Venezia 0–2 Milan
Sept 2024Milan 4–0 Venezia
Jan 2022Venezia 0–3 Milan
Sept 2021Milan 2–0 Venezia
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won AC Milan vs Venezia?

AC Milan beat Venezia 2–0. Bawler's model had AC Milan in front at 54% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.8 goals; only 2 were scored. AC Milan had 16 shots (5 on target) to Venezia's 9 (2), with 58% of the ball against 42%. Expected goals finished 2.1 to 0.8.

What was the final score in AC Milan vs Venezia?

AC Milan 2–0 Venezia, played on 28 Aug 2026 in the ITALY: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with AC Milan 54%, the draw 25% and Venezia 21%.

What were the stats in AC Milan vs Venezia?

Full-time: Possession 58%–42%, Expected goals (xG) 2.1–0.8, Shots 16–9, Shots on target 5–2, Shots inside box 11–7, Big chances 7–0, Corners 2–3, Saves 2–4, Fouls 8–11, Offsides 1–4, Yellow cards 1–3.

Did both teams score in AC Milan vs Venezia?

No. It finished 2–0, so Venezia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for AC Milan vs Venezia right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said AC Milan 54%, it finished AC Milan (54% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished No; Model call — we said 1X 79%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →AC Milan form →Venezia form →