What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model rates this match: 1. FC Union Berlin are favoured (55% win probability vs 22% for Schalke 04, 23% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is 1. FC Union Berlin 1-1 Schalke 04 (10.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.07.
How does Bawler predict 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives 1. FC Union Berlin 55%, the draw 23% and Schalke 04 22%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
BTTS: Yes (58% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.92 and away expected goals 1.15.
Over or under 2.5 goals in 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.07. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).