How it finished
Schalke 04 beat 1. FC Union Berlin 3–1. Bawler's model favoured 1. FC Union Berlin at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Schalke 04 22%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 4. 1. FC Union Berlin had 21 shots (8 on target) to Schalke 04's 19 (10), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 2.5.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
Schalke 04 beat 1. FC Union Berlin 3–1. Bawler's model favoured 1. FC Union Berlin at 55% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Schalke 04 22%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 4. 1. FC Union Berlin had 21 shots (8 on target) to Schalke 04's 19 (10), with 67% of the ball against 33%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 2.5.
What was the final score in 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
1. FC Union Berlin 1–3 Schalke 04, played on 11 Sept 2026 in the Germany: Bundesliga. Bawler's model had gone into it with 1. FC Union Berlin 55%, the draw 24% and Schalke 04 22%.
What were the stats in 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
Full-time: Possession 67%–33%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–2.5, Shots 21–19, Shots on target 8–10, Shots inside box 18–11, Big chances 2–5, Corners 4–5, Saves 6–7, Fouls 11–10, Offsides 2–3, Yellow cards 3–1.
Did both teams score in 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04?
Yes — both 1. FC Union Berlin and Schalke 04 scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for 1. FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04 right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said 1. FC Union Berlin or draw 78%, it finished Schalke 04 won (22% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes.