> MATCH.PREDICT()Β·World: World CupΒ·Saturday 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC
Egypt vs Iran
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain β every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% because both sides project nearly identical attacking threatβEgypt 1.33 xG, Iran 1.40βmaking a low-scoring stalemate unlikely in open play.
Win probability
32.7% home31.6% draw35.7% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
EgyptstepIran
1.33Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.40
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final Ξ» β what the Poisson uses1.40
Scoreline distribution Β· P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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9
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1
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12
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 7.5 SOT + Over 1.5 Goals + Omar Marmoush 1+ Shot on Target + Under 10.5 Corners
Model 46.5% Β· @ 2.15x
Take this pick β> STAR_PICKS Β· player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Egypt 1β1 Iran
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+