Match prediction·World: World Cup·Sunday 14 Jun, 23:00 UTC

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 2.5 Goals projects at 72% because combined xG of 2.67 and Ecuador's narrow 6-point win-probability edge over Ivory Coast (37% vs 31%) both signal an open, attacking contest.

📊 Win probability
30.8% home31.9% draw37.2% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Ivory CoaststepEcuador
1.17Base xG · rolling 26-match1.46
× 1.08Home advantage · Home× 0.96
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.27Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.41

Ivory Coast average 7.7 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Ecuador average 6.7 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
9
12
9
4
1
2
6
8
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 2.5 goals
72%
Ivory Coast or draw
46%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Ivory Coast vs Ecuador — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ivory Coast and Ecuador — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ivory Coast 31% · draw 32% · Ecuador 37%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Ivory Coast 10 Ecuador
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.