Match predictionยทWorld: World CupยทSaturday 04 Jul, 17:00 UTC
Canada vs Morocco
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain โ every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals lands at 68% because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat at 1.26 and 1.29 xG respectively, with Davies and En-Nesyri primed to deliver in a dead-even contest.
Win probability
32.1% home32.3% draw35.6% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
CanadastepMorocco
1.16Base xG ยท rolling 26-match1.42
ร 1.10Home advantage ยท Host nationร 0.95
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final goal estimate โ what the model uses1.35
Scoreline distribution ยท chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
8
5
2
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 2.5 Goals
Model 71.1% ยท @ 1.41
DARK HORSEPro
Over 3.5 Goals
Model 23.2% ยท @ 4.31
BAWL OUTPro
Jonathan David 1+ Shot on Target + Over 2.5 Goals + 1X
Model 31.8% ยท @ 3.15x
Star picks ยท player props
1 pickAnytime ScorerPro
Jonathan David
Canada ยท Juventus
46%@ 2.17x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
Canada 0โ3 Morocco
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+