Match predictionΒ·World: World CupΒ·Friday 03 Jul, 18:00 UTC
Australia vs Egypt
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain β every number we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 76% because both sides generate similar firepowerβAustralia 1.28 xG, Egypt 1.38βguaranteeing a low-scoring but open contest where goals flow from both ends.
Win probability
31.6% home32.1% draw36.3% away
xG chain β base β adjustments β final Ξ»
AustraliastepEgypt
1.28Base xG Β· rolling 26-match1.38
no injury adjustment β full squads available per FotMob
1.28Final goal estimate β what the model uses1.38
Scoreline distribution Β· chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
10
7
3
1
1
9
12
9
4
1
2
6
8
5
3
1
3
2
3
2
1
4
1
1
1
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home windrawaway win
BANKER
Over 1.5 Goals
Model 75.8% Β· @ 1.32
DARK HORSEPro
Over 3.5 Goals
Model 23.8% Β· @ 4.20
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + Omar Marmoush 3+ Shots + Under 10.5 Corners + 1X
Model 23.7% Β· @ 4.23x
Star picks Β· player props
2 picksAnytime ScorerPro
Mohamed Salah
Egypt Β· Liverpool
55%@ 1.82x fair
Anytime ScorerPro
Omar Marmoush
Egypt Β· Man City
42%@ 2.38x fair
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played. Updated daily.
More predictions for these teams
β‘ Full-time recap available
Australia 1β1 Egypt
See how the model called it Β· pick-by-pick verdict Β· xG vs actual β
Statistical analysis for entertainment Β· Not betting advice Β· Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes Β· 18+