Bawler / England: Premier League / Newcastle
Team profile · England: Premier League

Newcastle Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
6
6 settled
Goals for
1.62
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.33
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
67%
4/6 calls

Newcastle prediction: Bawler's model rates Newcastle at 1.62 expected goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match across 6 settled fixtures, and its high-confidence calls on them have been correct 67% of the time. Their last 5 settled matches read 2W 1D 2L. No Newcastle fixture falls inside the next 30 days — the next one will be forecast here as soon as it is scheduled. Full form, recent scoring and defending trend and every settled prediction are below.

Newcastle sit close to the Premier League average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.62 expected goals a game and conceding 1.33. Across 6 settled fixtures the model's high-confidence calls on Newcastle have been correct 67% of the time.

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
2W 1D 3L
Real goals
1.5 – 1.5
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Newcastle compare with the England: Premier League average, per match.

Goals for
1.62
Above average
Goals against
1.33
Tighter than most
Scored1.62
Conceded1.33

The grey line on each bar is the England: Premier League average (1.46 scored, 1.46 conceded).

What the data says
Strong in attack
Averaging 1.62 xG per match · +0.16 above the England: Premier League average of 1.46.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Newcastle fixtures (3/3).
Tough market: Result
Newcastle matches give the model a harder read here — 1/3 (33%) correct. Treat forecasts in this market as less reliable.

📊 Newcastle in numbers

50 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.5
🏠 2.0✈️ 1.3
5.9
Corners · per game
give up 5.2
🏠 6.8✈️ 5.1
13.2
Shots · per game
faced 12.8
🏠 14.2✈️ 12.2
5.1
On target · per game
faced 4.6
🏠 5.6✈️ 4.6
🗓️ Last 6 games
24 May
0-2
@ Fulham
🚩 6-6
17 May
3-1
vs West Ham
🚩 9-1
10 May
1-1
@ Nott'm Forest
🚩 1-2
02 May
3-1
vs Brighton
🚩 2-10
25 Apr
0-1
@ Arsenal
🚩 2-7
18 Apr
1-2
vs Bournemouth
🚩 2-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Newcastle matches
67%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 6

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Newcastle fixture, it is right 4 out of 6 (67%). Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Newcastle by market
Result33%1/3
Goals (Over/Under)100%3/3

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Newcastle fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Newcastle matches.

Recent matches (last 6)

Transfer activity

INBazoumana TouréLWfrom Hoffenheim€50m
INAladji BambaDMfrom Monaco€36m
INLukás HornícekGKfrom Braga€30m
INSean SteurCMfrom Ajax€23m
INEwen JaouenGKfrom Reims€22m
OUTAnthony GordonLWto Barcelona€80m
OUTSandro TonaliCMto Tottenham Hotspur€108m
OUTBruno GuimarãesCMto Arsenal€88m
OUTAntoñito CorderoLMto CadizLoan
OUTKieran TrippierRBto Wolverhampton WanderersFree transfer
OUTAlex MurphyLBto KaiserslauternLoan
OUTHarrison AshbyRWBto Luton TownLoan
OUTEmil KrafthRBto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Newcastle prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly