What we expect
In plain English
West Ham United are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have won four of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Queens Park Rangers, and Queens Park Rangers have not beaten them in their last five meetings. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
West Ham United to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers?
Bawler's model rates this match: West Ham United are favoured (66% win probability vs 14% for Queens Park Rangers, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is West Ham United 2-0 Queens Park Rangers (10.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.20.
How does Bawler predict West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives West Ham United 66%, the draw 20% and Queens Park Rangers 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers?
BTTS: Yes (55% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.26 and away expected goals 0.95.
Over or under 2.5 goals in West Ham United vs Queens Park Rangers?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.20. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).