FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Watford 1–5 Peterborough UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Watford at 42%, draw at 27%, Peterborough United at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-5. The model's headline call was Watford to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Watford win
42%
Draw
27%
United win
31%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.48 – 1.24
Total 2.72
Actual
1 – 5
Total 6 (+3.3 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 3.3 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost