Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelVitória de Guimaraes on top, and Arnel Jakupović getting plenty of shots away.
Vitória de Guimaraes v Estrela prediction
Our model makes Vitória de Guimaraes favourites for this Liga Portugal game, giving them a 51% chance of winning. Estrela are 24% and the draw is 25%. Our predicted score is Vitória de Guimaraes 1–0 Estrela, the likeliest Vitória de Guimaraes win score (10%). Vitória de Guimaraes are expected to score 1.7 goals and Estrela 1.1, 2.9 between them. Both teams scoring is 56% and three or more goals is 54%.
On shots, our forecast is 16.8 for Vitória de Guimaraes and 9.7 for Estrela, with 5.4 and 3.3 on target, and corners at 5.9 to 3.3. So we expect Vitória de Guimaraes to do more of the shooting. Arnel Jakupović is the player we expect to shoot most: 3.6 shots and 1.1 on target for Vitória de Guimaraes, if they start. For cards, Toni Borevković (Vitória de Guimaraes) has been booked about once a game in 2026/27, more often than anyone else here.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Vitória de Guimaraes have won four, Estrela none, and one was drawn. When they last met, it finished Vitória de Guimarães 2–1 Estrela da Amadora, in Feb 2026. Estrela have one win, no draws and five defeats from their last six games, and lost the most recent. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Vitória de Guimaraes or Draw, Vitória de Guimaraes Over 12.5 Shots and Arnel Jakupović 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 54% on our numbers, so the fair price is 5/6, or 1.87.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Vitória de Guimaraes · last 6
Estrela · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Vitória de Guimaraes or draw is 76% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27 and 2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Liga Portugal table →Common questions
Who will win Vitória de Guimaraes vs Estrela?
Bawler's model rates this match: Vitória de Guimaraes are favoured (51% win probability vs 24% for Estrela, 25% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Vitória de Guimaraes vs Estrela?
Bawler's predicted score is Vitória de Guimaraes 1-0 Estrela: the most likely score if Vitória de Guimaraes win, which is the likeliest result (51%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.8%. Expected total goals: 2.9.
How does Bawler predict Vitória de Guimaraes vs Estrela?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Vitória de Guimaraes 51%, the draw 25% and Estrela 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Vitória de Guimaraes vs Estrela?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 56% chance. That is based on Vitória de Guimaraes expecting 1.73 goals and Estrela 1.13.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Vitória de Guimaraes vs Estrela?
Bawler's model expects 2.9 goals in total. It leans slightly towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 54%.
When are the Vitória de Guimaraes v Estrela line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Vitória de Guimaraes v Estrela?
Vitória de Guimaraes or Draw (76%), Vitória de Guimaraes Over 12.5 Shots (79%), Arnel Jakupović 2+ Shots (81%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 54% chance, a fair price of 5/6 (1.87). 18+, please gamble responsibly.