> MATCH.PREDICT()ยทWorld: World CupยทThursday 25 Jun, 23:00 UTC
Tunisia vs Netherlands
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain โ every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 81% because Netherlands' 2.38 xG dwarfs Tunisia's 0.77, creating the offensive firepower gap this market demands.
Win probability
7.8% home18.9% draw73.3% away
xG chain โ base โ adjustments โ final ฮป
TunisiastepNetherlands
0.74Base xG ยท rolling 26-match2.50
no injury adjustment โ full squads available per FotMob
0.74Final ฮป โ what the Poisson uses2.50
Scoreline distribution ยท P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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10
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3
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1
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS ยท player props
2 picksProbabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
โก Full-time recap available
Tunisia 1โ3 Netherlands
See how the model called it ยท pick-by-pick verdict ยท xG vs actual โ
Statistical analysis for entertainment ยท Not betting advice ยท Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes ยท 18+