Tunisia vs Netherlands
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 81% because Netherlands' 2.38 xG dwarfs Tunisia's 0.77, creating the offensive firepower gap this market demands.
Tunisia average 3.5 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Tunisia vs Netherlands — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Tunisia and Netherlands — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Tunisia 8% · draw 19% · Netherlands 73%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.