What we expect · full match
How to read this
The small bars under each number are that side’s most recent matches (up to six), home and away, against opponents of mixed strength, oldest on the left; the dashed line is the number we expect. Our forecast is for this opponent at this ground, so a favourite’s recent numbers often sit below it and an underdog’s above it.
Recent averages · last 6 matches or fewer
What each side has actually done lately, home and away — a record, not a forecast. Troyes: last 5 matches; Lens: last 6 matches.
What we expect
In plain English
Lens should get at least a draw here. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than Troyes, and Troyes have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Lens or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Troyes · last 5
Lens · last 6
First half — what we expect
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 83%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Troyes vs Lens?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lens are favoured (56% win probability vs 22% for Troyes, 22% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Troyes vs Lens?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Troyes 1-2 Lens (9.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.5.
How does Bawler predict Troyes vs Lens?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Troyes 22%, the draw 22% and Lens 56%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Troyes vs Lens?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 65% chance. That is based on Troyes expecting 1.31 goals and Lens 2.16.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Troyes vs Lens?
Bawler's model expects 3.5 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 68%.