FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Troyes 1–3 LensMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Lens or draw at 78%. Bawler had Troyes at 23%, the draw at 22% and Lens at 55%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Troyes win
23%
Draw
22%
Lens win
55%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 2.1
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Troyes to win
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.