Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToulouse on top, with Casper Tengstedt our likeliest to test the keeper.
Toulouse v Stade Rennais prediction
Toulouse are favourites on our numbers: 47% to win, against 29% for Stade Rennais and 24% for a draw. Our predicted score is Toulouse 2–1 Stade Rennais: the most likely score if Toulouse win, at 9%. Our expected goals are 1.8 for Toulouse and 1.4 for Stade Rennais, 3.3 in all. Both sides are more likely than not to score (64%) and three or more goals is 63%.
In their last six games Toulouse have three wins, two draws and one defeat, while Stade Rennais have one win, two draws and three defeats. Toulouse won their most recent match and Stade Rennais lost theirs. Of the players, Casper Tengstedt (Toulouse) tops both our lists, with 4.3 shots and 1.3 on target expected if they start. Niko Sigur of Toulouse is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27.
We expect Toulouse to have 16.2 shots (5.6 on target) and Stade Rennais 12.1 (4.1 on target), and corners at 5.4 to 4.4. That points to Toulouse doing more of the attacking. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Toulouse or Draw, Toulouse Over 11.5 Shots and Casper Tengstedt 1+ Shot on Target. The chance all three land is 45% on our numbers, so the fair price is 6/5, or 2.20.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Toulouse · last 6
Stade Rennais · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Toulouse or draw is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Toulouse vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model rates this match: Toulouse are favoured (47% win probability vs 29% for Stade Rennais, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's predicted score is Toulouse 2-1 Stade Rennais: the most likely score if Toulouse win, which is the likeliest result (47%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.1%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Toulouse vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Toulouse 47%, the draw 24% and Stade Rennais 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Stade Rennais?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 64% chance. That is based on Toulouse expecting 1.84 goals and Stade Rennais 1.42.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Toulouse vs Stade Rennais?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 63%.
When are the Toulouse v Stade Rennais line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Toulouse v Stade Rennais?
Toulouse or Draw (71%), Toulouse Over 11.5 Shots (82%), Casper Tengstedt 1+ Shot on Target (68%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 45% chance, a fair price of 6/5 (2.20). 18+, please gamble responsibly.