Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelLens on top, and Florian Thauvin getting plenty of shots away.
Lens v Toulouse prediction
Our model makes Lens favourites for this Ligue 1 game, giving them a 47% chance of winning. Toulouse are 29% and the draw is 24%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Lens 2–1 Toulouse, the most likely Lens win (9%). We expect 3.3 goals in total: 1.8 for Lens and 1.4 for Toulouse. Both sides are more likely than not to score (64%) and three or more goals is 64%.
In their last six games Lens have two wins, no draws and four defeats, while Toulouse have three wins, two draws and one defeat. Lens lost their most recent match and Toulouse won theirs. We expect Lens to have 17.9 shots (5.0 on target) and Toulouse 11.2 (3.4 on target), and corners at 6.4 to 3.5. That points to Lens doing more of the attacking.
Of the players, Casper Tengstedt (Toulouse) tops both our lists, with 3.1 shots and 1.1 on target expected if they start. Niko Sigur of Toulouse is the most booked player in either squad, once every 2 games in 2026/27. Of their last five meetings on our records, Lens have won three, Toulouse one, and one was drawn. The last meeting ended Lens 4–1 Toulouse, in Apr 2026. For Bawler's pick we have gone with Lens or Draw, Lens Over 13.5 Shots and Florian Thauvin 2+ Shots. The chance all three land is 40% on our numbers, so the fair price is 6/4, or 2.49.
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Lens · last 6
Toulouse · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Lens or draw is 71% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Ligue 1 table →Common questions
Who will win Lens vs Toulouse?
Bawler's model rates this match: Lens are favoured (47% win probability vs 29% for Toulouse, 24% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Toulouse?
Bawler's predicted score is Lens 2-1 Toulouse: the most likely score if Lens win, which is the likeliest result (47%). Our model puts that exact score at 9.1%. Expected total goals: 3.3.
How does Bawler predict Lens vs Toulouse?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Lens 47%, the draw 24% and Toulouse 29%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Lens vs Toulouse?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 64% chance. That is based on Lens expecting 1.85 goals and Toulouse 1.44.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Lens vs Toulouse?
Bawler's model expects 3.3 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 64%.
When are the Lens v Toulouse line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Lens v Toulouse?
Lens or Draw (71%), Lens Over 13.5 Shots (79%), Florian Thauvin 2+ Shots (66%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 40% chance, a fair price of 6/4 (2.49). 18+, please gamble responsibly.