What we expect
In plain English
Tajikistan are the model's pick, without being a certainty. The model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Palestine. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Tajikistan to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Tajikistan vs Palestine?
Bawler's model rates this match: Tajikistan are favoured (70% win probability vs 11% for Palestine, 20% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Tajikistan vs Palestine?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Tajikistan 2-0 Palestine (13.1% probability). Expected total goals: 2.86.
How does Bawler predict Tajikistan vs Palestine?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Tajikistan 70%, the draw 20% and Palestine 11%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Tajikistan vs Palestine?
BTTS: No (55% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 2.15 and away expected goals 0.71.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Tajikistan vs Palestine?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.86. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).