Match prediction·World: World Cup·Thursday 18 Jun, 19:00 UTC

Switzerland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 72% because Switzerland's 1.56 xG and Bosnia's 1.18 xG combine for 2.74 total — enough attacking threat from creator Xhaka and scorer Džeko to break the stalemate.

📊 Win probability
42.9% home30.9% draw26.2% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
SwitzerlandstepBosnia-Herzegovina
1.56Base xG · rolling 26-match1.18
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.56Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.18

Switzerland average 4.3 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
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0
6
8
4
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1
10
12
7
3
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home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
72%
Bosnia-Herzegovina or draw
50%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Breel Embolo
Switzerland · Rennes
40%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Switzerland vs Bosnia-Herzegovina — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Switzerland and Bosnia-Herzegovina — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Switzerland 43% · draw 31% · Bosnia-Herzegovina 26%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Switzerland 41 Bosnia-Herzegovina
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.