Swansea City vs 
Birmingham City
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Over 1.5 Goals at 69% probability holds strong value as Swansea's 0.43 xG advantage and dominant 43% win odds signal sustained attacking pressure at home.
Swansea CitystepBirmingham CitySwansea average 5.2 corners per game at home this season (24 competitive matches). Birmingham average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
More predictions for these teams
Swansea vs Birmingham — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Swansea and Birmingham — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Swansea 43% · draw 34% · Birmingham 23%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Swansea City 0–1 Birmingham CityModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.