Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelToo close to call the result, so we back the game to be busy: shots, corners and efforts on target.
Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur prediction
Sunderland are narrow favourites on our numbers, at 39%. Tottenham Hotspur are 33%, and the draw 28%. If you want one score, our predicted score is Sunderland 1–0 Tottenham Hotspur, the most likely Sunderland win (10%). We expect 2.5 goals in total: 1.3 for Sunderland and 1.2 for Tottenham Hotspur. Both sides are more likely than not to score (52%) and three or more goals is 47%.
Sunderland come in with two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last six. Tottenham Hotspur have three wins, one draw and two defeats over the same run. We expect Sunderland to have 13.8 shots (4.4 on target) and Tottenham Hotspur 12.0 (3.9 on target), and corners at 4.5 to 4.8.
Of their last five meetings on our records, Sunderland have won one, Tottenham Hotspur two, and two were drawn. The last meeting ended Sunderland 1–0 Tottenham Hotspur, in Apr 2026. Of the players, Omar Marmoush (Tottenham Hotspur) tops both our lists, with 2.3 shots and 0.9 on target expected if they start. Daniel Ballard of Sunderland is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27. Bawler's pick combines Over 21.5 Total Shots, Over 6.5 Total Corners and Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target. We make the chance of all three coming in 56%, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most shots
Shots we expect them to takeMost on target
Shots on target we expectMost booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Sunderland · last 6
Tottenham Hotspur · last 6
League position
Head to head
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Sunderland or draw is 67% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Bawler's model rates this match: Sunderland are favoured (39% win probability vs 33% for Tottenham Hotspur, 28% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Bawler's predicted score is Sunderland 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur: the most likely score if Sunderland win, which is the likeliest result (39%). Our model puts that exact score at 10.2%. Expected total goals: 2.5.
How does Bawler predict Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Sunderland 39%, the draw 28% and Tottenham Hotspur 33%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Probably — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 52% chance. That is based on Sunderland expecting 1.33 goals and Tottenham Hotspur 1.21.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sunderland vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Bawler's model expects 2.5 goals in total. It leans slightly towards two goals or fewer: over 2.5 goals is 47%.
When are the Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur?
Over 21.5 Total Shots (77%), Over 6.5 Total Corners (79%), Over 5.5 Total Shots on Target (81%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 56% chance, a fair price of 4/5 (1.80). 18+, please gamble responsibly.