Bawler's pick
3 legs, built by our modelSunderland on top, and Brian Brobbey getting plenty of shots away.
Sunderland v Jagiellonia Bialystok prediction
Sunderland go into this Europa League match as strong favourites on our numbers: 72% to win, against 10% for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 18% for a draw. If you want one score, our predicted score is Sunderland 2–0 Jagiellonia Bialystok, at 12%. We expect 3.1 goals in total: 2.4 for Sunderland and 0.8 for Jagiellonia Bialystok. There is a 49% chance both sides score and three or more goals is 61%.
Of the players, Brian Brobbey (Sunderland) tops both our lists, with 2.5 shots and 0.9 on target expected if they start. Daniel Ballard of Sunderland is the most booked player in either squad, once every 3 games in 2026/27. We expect Sunderland to have 19.0 shots (3.9 on target) and Jagiellonia Bialystok 9.7 (3.9 on target), and corners at 6.3 to 3.2. That points to Sunderland doing more of the attacking.
Sunderland come in with two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last six. Jagiellonia Bialystok have four wins, no draws and two defeats over the same run. Bawler's pick combines Sunderland or Draw, Sunderland Over 14.5 Shots and Brian Brobbey 2+ Shots. We make the chance of all three coming in 52%, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93).
Written from the numbers on this page. These are forecasts, not certainties. 18+ Please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org
Players to watch
Numbers are if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff.
Most booked
Games per booking, from their latest season — a record, not a forecastWhat we expect from each side
The grey number is their average over the last six.
More chances
Sunderland · last 6
Jagiellonia Bialystok · last 6
League position
First half — what we expect
First-half chances
How likely each side is to reach these totals before half-time.
Second half — who scores?
At half-time we update each side’s chance of scoring in the second half from what the first half showed.
What would change the call
Sunderland to win is 72% now. Here is what it would become at half-time:
Based on the half-time score alone — team news is not included.
Player forecasts
Shots we expect from each player if they start — lineups land about an hour before kickoff. From 2025/26–2026/27, all club matches.
1 in 3 = booked about once every three games last time out — a record, not a forecast. Players with fewer minutes are pulled toward the league average, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Around this fixture
Premier League table →Common questions
Who will win Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Bawler's model rates this match: Sunderland are favoured (72% win probability vs 10% for Jagiellonia Bialystok, 18% draw). The model uses each side’s expected goals, recent form and the strength of the opposition.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Bawler's predicted score is Sunderland 2-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok: the most likely score if Sunderland win, which is the likeliest result (72%). Our model puts that exact score at 11.9%. Expected total goals: 3.1.
How does Bawler predict Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Bawler estimates each side's expected goals from its results and the quality of its chances, adjusted for the strength of the opposition and for home advantage, then works out the chance of every scoreline to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. Team news and lineups are not built into these numbers. For this match that gives Sunderland 72%, the draw 18% and Jagiellonia Bialystok 10%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Probably not — Bawler's model gives both teams scoring a 49% chance, so at least one side is more likely than not to keep a clean sheet. That is based on Sunderland expecting 2.37 goals and Jagiellonia Bialystok 0.78.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sunderland vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Bawler's model expects 3.1 goals in total. It leans towards three or more goals: over 2.5 goals is 61%.
When are the Sunderland v Jagiellonia Bialystok line-ups announced?
Clubs usually name their line-ups about an hour before kickoff.
What is Bawler's pick for Sunderland v Jagiellonia Bialystok?
Sunderland or Draw (90%), Sunderland Over 14.5 Shots (79%), Brian Brobbey 2+ Shots (67%). Our model gives all 3 landing together a 52% chance, a fair price of 10/11 (1.93). 18+, please gamble responsibly.